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《十年利率心法》的逻辑框架

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资产周期轮动的底层逻辑——?#29992;?#26519;时钟到货币信用

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《十年利率心法》可以分为三大部分,六大章节,章节逻辑上有着完整而严谨的体系设计,层层递进,环环相扣,相信完整学习的你能够体会其中深意。

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利率体系是基础,资产配置是实践,利率周期的起伏是驱动大类资产轮动的核心驱动力,?#21069;?#25569;不同周期下投资机遇的密码。

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《十年利率体系》的上半部分着眼于中国利率体系的基础知识,通过详?#20184;?#23436;整的介绍,旨在帮助投资者建立一套利率的综合分析框架

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《十年利率体系》的下半部分则着眼于资产轮动和资产配置,如果说利率体系理论基础,那么资产配置就是投资实践

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如何把握不同周期下的最优投资配?#27809;?#20250;,提高资产配置的收益和效率,相信是每一位市场投资人最为关心的核心议题!

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??#28784;?#26700;前看天下,付鹏说来评财经?
这是一份从2017年3月开始伴随全年的投资指引,欢迎订?#27169;?#25139;)
▲ 全年订阅 ?加入付鹏说专属交流圈儿?

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付鹏说:十年中国GDP路径的启?#33606;?)【262】

视频时长08分33秒,请在wifi环境?#29575;?#30475;

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本期内容

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>>本文仅限作者观点,点击上方视频收看!

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在2016、2017年的中国供给侧改革中,对于全球来讲,第一个问题就是G2(中国与美国组合成一个Group)中的美国开始回归,实际上美国的回归对新兴市场在2014年、2015年的冲击挺大。在强者回归的过程中,新兴市场面临着一个?#25918;?#27819;的过程,所以2014年、2015年,包括中国,更多都是为当时的政策错位买单。2016年用供给侧改革、?#35782;人?#36135;币的形式,缓解了一定的债务风险,但是我们的经济GDP大概也就是到了7%,整体已经跟?#30475;?#28608;状态完全不一样。所以对中国未来也不要抱类似于这样的?#30475;?#28608;的结果的期待。政策空间在减小,整体是在拖住、不产生?#20302;?#24615;风险情况下,稳步下?#23567;?/p>\n

在2017年的过程中,实际上当时很多人认为整个G2是不是都已经回来了,全球的一个周期是否已结束。这在2017年是非常关键的一个讨论,当时包括欧洲、日?#33606;?#20840;球的债券收益率都在快速上调,那个时候全球正在讨论的是真正意义上的复苏状态。中国稳定回升,美国也出来,这样的话是不是大家都会有一个好日子,这些收益自然也就会上?#23567;?#20294;是随即到了2017年年底,2018年年初,其实全球就开始迅速地正位。这个时候我们才开?#23478;?#35782;到一个大的问题,就是在2008年之后的金融危机各国采用的政策,和全球化开始衰落的环境下,各国面临的自己的长周期的结构性的矛盾的因素,其实已经?#23545;?#22823;于政策的空间。

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比如欧洲,它自己的结构问题已经?#23545;?#22823;于它可调用的空间,它绝没有中国那么宽的政策空间。所以G2的努力并不能把大家所有人都拖出来。一旦G2开始?#32622;?#30462;,总的全球的蛋糕又不?#29615;?#37197;,美国在强势回归的过程中涉及到的是全球利润的再分配,这种情况下其他各国的希望也?#36864;婕此?#33853;。

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原则上来讲整个2017年、2018年,全球整体经济的再次放缓都是一个必要的过程。在这种外部环境不断施压的过程中,中国一直到2018年中旬其实表现还算不错。但到了2018年的下半年,第一,外围环境上,我们在G2冲突中间受到了巨大的影响和冲击,第二我们内部的风险也开始暴露。其中最大的内部问题在于所有的内外风险的再次?#36153;梗?#21253;括政府、房地产负面效应,包括股权到二级市场,包括之后的股权质押出现了中小板创业板的风险。GDP6.4%,是十年以来除了2008年金融危机以外的最?#36864;健?/p>","is_priced":true,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.0081302.com/premium/articles/3515690?layout=wscn-layout","vip_uri":"","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6eed7b92-3dbe-4c5e-a3cd-5b8d104eac43.jpg","use_default_image":false,"source_name":"","source_uri":"","display_time":1555928200,"author":null,"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":null,"related_themes":null,"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":false,"vip_type":""},"resource_type":"article"},"status":"normal","theme_type":"normal","title":"付鹏","today_update_count":0,"updated_at":1555928200,"uri":"http://www.0081302.com/themes/1005348","url":"http://www.0081302.com/themes/1005348","wits_kol_id":5000000189599,"wits_kol_name":"付鹏"},{"categories":[{"property_key":"keji","property_name":"科技"},{"property_key":"kejimingxinggongsi","property_name":"科技-明星公司"}],"content_count":576,"description":"","fixed_follower_count":10000,"follower_count":28604,"id":1005755,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/648a48ce-be39-4ec2-b79a-e10e25b9eaf3.jpg","image_url":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/648a48ce-be39-4ec2-b79a-e10e25b9eaf3.jpg","is_followed":false,"is_priced":false,"is_push":false,"latest_content":{"resource":{"id":3517844,"title":"实锤了!锤?#21191;?#36523;字节跳动 Smartisan OS官微透?#35835;?#20449;息","slot_title":"","content_short":"日前,Smartisan OS官方微博更新了企业认证信息,认证主体从原先的锤子科技(北京)股份有限公?#33606;?#36716;变","content_preview":"","is_priced":false,"is_trial":false,"is_paid":false,"comment_disabled":false,"uri":"http://www.0081302.com/articles/3517844","vip_uri":"","comment_count":0,"is_favourite":false,"pageviews":0,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/content_default_39.jpg","use_default_image":true,"source_name":"TechWeb","source_uri":"","display_time":1556160683,"author":null,"categories":null,"platforms":["wscn-platform"],"related_topics":null,"related_themes":null,"unshow_content_short":false,"is_in_vip_privilege":false,"vip_type":""},"resource_type":"article"},"status":"normal","theme_type":"normal","title":"今日头条?#34892;?#28040;息","today_update_count":1,"updated_at":1556160683,"uri":"http://www.0081302.com/themes/1005755","url":"http://www.0081302.com/themes/1005755","wits_kol_id":0,"wits_kol_name":""}],"next_cursor":"8"}},"[\"/content/lives\",{\"channel\":\"global-channel\",\"limit\":6,\"first_page\":true,\"score\":\"2,3\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":[{"article":null,"author":{"id":863556,"display_name":"marco","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f9eeb3e9-42ab-449f-89d3-75b864d95ebb","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/authors/863556"},"channels":["global-channel","goldc-channel","forex-channel"],"content":"

【日本央行政策会议、新闻发布会看点】
\n① 市场基本确定日本央行此次会下调展望,关注下调幅度;
\n② 市场预计日本央行不会追加宽松,关注对此的解?#20572;?br/>\n③ 关注黑田东彦对楼市信贷自泡沫时代以来首?#26410;?#21450;警戒线的看法;
\n④ 关注针对10天休市的应急措施。
\n(华尔街见闻注:北京时间今日午间将不定时公布日本央行利率决议,14:30日本央行行长黑田东彦将召开记者会。)

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"【日本央行政策会议、新闻发布会看点】\n① 市场基本确定日本央行此次会下调展望,关注下调幅度;\n② 市场预计日本央行不会追加宽松,关注对此的解?#20572;籠n③ 关注黑田东彦对楼市信贷自泡沫时代以来首?#26410;?#21450;警戒线的看法;\n④ 关注针对10天休市的应急措施。\n(华尔街见闻注:北京时间今日午间将不定时公布日本央行利率决议,14:30日本央行行长黑田东彦将召开记者会。)\n","display_time":1556159408,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.0081302.com/live","id":1500356,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live"},{"article":{"id":3517809,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/afa2a5d7-3ce7-4d74-9206-5035bba70081.jpg","platforms":["wscn-platform"],"title":"央行回应货币政策走向:以前没有放松,现在也谈不上收紧","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/articles/3517809"},"author":{"id":6029,"display_name":"石惠","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/571933c7-b3e8-4877-8b6b-ed1b1765b4fa","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/authors/6029"},"channels":["global-channel","a-stock-channel","xgb-channel"],"content":"

在中国一季度经济数据取得超预期开门红之后,市场疑虑未来货币政策是否会有边际收紧。今天,央行官员在国新办发布会上作出回应:以前没有放松,现在也谈不上收紧。(中新社)

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"在中国一季度经济数据取得超预期开门红之后,市场疑虑未来货币政策是否会有边际收紧。今天,央行官员在国新办发布会上作出回应:以前没有放松,现在也谈不上收紧。(中新社)\n","display_time":1556159177,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.0081302.com/live","id":1500351,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"央行回应货币政策走向:以前没有放松,现在也谈不上收紧","type":"live"},{"article":{"id":3517809,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/afa2a5d7-3ce7-4d74-9206-5035bba70081.jpg","platforms":["wscn-platform"],"title":"央行回应货币政策走向:以前没有放松,现在也谈不上收紧","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/articles/3517809"},"author":{"id":6029,"display_name":"石惠","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/571933c7-b3e8-4877-8b6b-ed1b1765b4fa","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/authors/6029"},"channels":["global-channel","a-stock-channel","xgb-channel"],"content":"

央行表?#33606;?#19979;一步要实施稳健的货币政策,坚持不搞“大水漫灌?#20445;?#33829;造有利于降低小微企业融资成本的货币金融环?#22330;?#35201;灵活运用货币政策工具,保持流动行合理充裕和市场利率平稳运行,扩大再贷款、再贴现等工具规模,抓紧建立对中小银行实行较低存款?#24613;?#37329;率的政策框架,要将?#22836;?#30340;增量资金用于民营和小微企业贷款。(央广网)

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"央行表?#33606;?#19979;一步要实施稳健的货币政策,坚持不搞“大水漫灌?#20445;?#33829;造有利于降低小微企业融资成本的货币金融环?#22330;?#35201;灵活运用货币政策工具,保持流动行合理充裕和市场利率平稳运行,扩大再贷款、再贴现等工具规模,抓紧建立对中小银行实行较低存款?#24613;?#37329;率的政策框架,要将?#22836;?#30340;增量资金用于民营和小微企业贷款。(央广网)\n","display_time":1556158439,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.0081302.com/live","id":1500325,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"中国央行:抓紧建立对中小银行实行较低存款?#24613;?#37329;率的政策框架","type":"live"},{"article":null,"author":{"id":863556,"display_name":"marco","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f9eeb3e9-42ab-449f-89d3-75b864d95ebb","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/authors/863556"},"channels":["global-channel","gold-forex-channel"],"content":"

【人民币中间价下调102点】人民币兑美元中间价报6.7307,为3月末以来新?#20572;?#19978;一?#28784;?#26085;中间价报6.7205;上一?#28784;?#26085;官方收盘价6.7179,上一?#28784;?#26085;夜盘收报6.7220。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"【人民币中间价下调102点】人民币兑美元中间价报6.7307,为3月末以来新?#20572;?#19978;一?#28784;?#26085;中间价报6.7205;上一?#28784;?#26085;官方收盘价6.7179,上一?#28784;?#26085;夜盘收报6.7220。\n","display_time":1556154924,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.0081302.com/live","id":1500252,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live"},{"article":null,"calendar_key":"270656364a5d0d77ce046e6cb7e3dd3b","channels":["global-channel","gold-forex-channel","gold-channel","forex-channel","commodity-channel"],"content":"

中国3月Swift人民币在全球支付中占比 1.89%,前值 1.85%。

\n","content_more":"","content_text":"中国3月Swift人民币在全球支付中占比 1.89%,前值 1.85%。\n","display_time":1556154000,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.0081302.com/live","id":1500233,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":true,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live","wscn_ticker":"CN191478"},{"article":{"id":3517229,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/a6606a6e-ad7e-47fc-b2bb-cca88ae893b3.jpg","platforms":["wscn-platform"],"title":"一笔复杂?#28784;?#32467;构引发监管风暴!近期北上资金大流出或与此有关","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/articles/3517229"},"author":{"id":863556,"display_name":"marco","image":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f9eeb3e9-42ab-449f-89d3-75b864d95ebb","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/authors/863556"},"channels":["global-channel","forex-channel","goldc-channel"],"content":"

【港媒:证监会、金管局通告所涉机构或包括民生银?#23567;看潞擰骯商?#38271;毛”的独立股评人David Webb推测,香港证监会、金管?#33267;?#21512;通告的复杂?#28784;祝?#24456;可能涉及民生银行及其香港子公司民银?#26102;尽?#20197;及绿地香港。(香港经济日报)

\n","content_more":"

华尔街见闻注:?#30340;?#20154;士认为,此?#38382;录?#24847;味着内地、香港两地协同监管已在路上,近期北上资金大流出或与此有关。

\n","content_text":"【港媒:证监会、金管局通告所涉机构或包括民生银?#23567;看潞擰骯商?#38271;毛”的独立股评人David Webb推测,香港证监会、金管?#33267;?#21512;通告的复杂?#28784;祝?#24456;可能涉及民生银行及其香港子公司民银?#26102;尽?#20197;及绿地香港。(香港经济日报)\n","display_time":1556152458,"global_channel_name":"7x24快讯","global_more_uri":"wscn://www.0081302.com/live","id":1500206,"image_uris":[],"is_calendar":false,"is_favourite":false,"is_priced":false,"reference":"","related_themes":null,"score":2,"symbols":[],"tags":[],"title":"","type":"live"}],"next_cursor":"1556152458","op_cursor":"4494534","polling_cursor":"1500356"}},"[\"/ddc/market/real\",{\"fields\":\"prod_name,preclose_px,last_px,px_change,px_change_rate,price_precision\",\"prod_code\":\"000001.SS,US500.OTC,EURUSD.OTC,XAUUSD.OTC,USDCNH.OTC,UKOIL.OTC,BTCUSD.Bitfinex\"}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"fields":["prod_name","preclose_px","last_px","px_change","px_change_rate","price_precision"],"snapshot":{"000001.SS":["上证指数",3201.6137,3182.1628,-19.45089999999982,-0.6075342568655244,"2"],"BTCUSD.Bitfinex":["比特币/美元",5599.7,5467.7,-132,-2.36,"2"],"EURUSD.OTC":["欧元/美元",1.1155,1.11567,0.00017000000000000348,0.015239802779023173,"4"],"UKOIL.OTC":["布伦特原油",74.57,74.61,0.04,0.05,"2"],"US500.OTC":["标普500指数",2933.68,2927.25,-6.43,-0.22,"2"],"USDCNH.OTC":["离岸人民币",6.7346,6.7355,0.0009,0.01,"4"],"XAUUSD.OTC":["现货黄金",1275.66,1276.03,0.37,0.03,"2"]}}},"[\"/premium/topics/carousel/mixads\",{\"accept\":\"topic\",\"order\":true,\"limit\":3}]":{"ttl":1,"value":[{"resource":{"author":{"author_short_intro":"安信证券研究所所长,计算机行业首席分析师","display_name":"胡又文","id":120000001864},"content_count":0,"id":1003044,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/5d44d073-4925-4e2f-83fc-7d7f8bfe97f9.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/86d39504-243f-4e71-b385-615e70497bf0.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":false,"is_text":true,"is_video":true,"latest_article":{"content_short":"?#23736;?#39532;”疯狂入股这些 SaaS上市公司到底想怎么干?","id":3516201,"title":"一?#30446;?#25026; A 股市场里的 SaaS 阵营【投资大学·大师课第十讲】","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/premium/articles/3516201?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1556082000,"product":{"bought_count":479,"discount_copywriting":"原价199元","discount_text":"原价199元","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":13513,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":false,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":15900,"name":"计算机硬?#36865;?#36164;·胡又文 | 大师课","origin_price":15900,"period":-1,"price":15900,"spu_id":13219,"weekly_bought_count":50},"sub_title":"All In 下一个科技真龙头","summary":"

作为 2019 年 A 股市场上的领?#21069;?#22359;,计算机行业的底气何来?

\n\n

作为?#20381;?#26368;多热点、风口的?#24052;?#32418;”版块,计算机行业中的真龙头是谁?

\n\n

一?#24065;?#26469;,计算机版块充满新技术、新主题、新模式,被市场认为是最容易被股民跟风,被机构集中持有,妖股和牛股共盘踞的版块。因此,读懂计算机版块也是投资者最希望驾驭的硬核技能。

\n\n

?

\n\n

本期大师课?#37117;?#31639;机硬?#36865;?#36164;》,将会带你?#40644;?strong>梳理计算机行业底层逻辑,盘点“下一个科技真龙头”。

\n\n

主讲人:胡又文 【安信证券研究所所长,计算机行业首席分析师】

\n\n

?

\n\n

三大核心价值:

\n\n\n\n

?

\n\n

\"image\"/\"image\"/

\n\n

\"image\"/

\n","summary_rich_text":"

作为 2019 年 A 股市场上的领?#21069;?#22359;,计算机行业的底气何来?

作为?#20381;?#26368;多热点、风口的?#24052;?#32418;”版块,计算机行业中的真龙头是谁?

一?#24065;?#26469;,计算机版块充满新技术、新主题、新模式,被市场认为是最容易被股民跟风,被机构集中持有,妖股和牛股共盘踞的版块。因此,读懂计算机版块也是投资者最希望驾驭的硬核技能。

?

本期大师课?#37117;?#31639;机硬?#36865;?#36164;》,将会带你?#40644;?strong>梳理计算机行业底层逻辑,盘点“下一个科技真龙头”。

主讲人:胡又文 【安信证券研究所所长,计算机行业首席分析师】

?

三大核心价值:

?

","title":"计算机硬?#36865;?#36164;·胡又文 | 大师课","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/premium/topics/1003044"},"resource_type":"topic"},{"resource":{"author":{"author_short_intro":"中信建投研究所所长、TMT行业首席分析师","display_name":"武超则","id":120000003956},"content_count":0,"id":1002840,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/5c40f2fe-6783-4509-8b96-9dfc06d83555.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/f953864d-fa8f-4bbd-8b06-3995c2767b00.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":false,"is_text":true,"is_video":true,"latest_article":{"content_short":"武超则大师?#21361;?G投资?#35745;?,"id":3505113,"title":"通信一姐武超则:华为中兴占全球通信主设备商半壁江山,上游供应链应如何布局?【投资大学·大师课第九讲】","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/premium/articles/3505113?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1555422444,"product":{"bought_count":1261,"discount_copywriting":"原价297元","discount_text":"原价297元","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":12452,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":true,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":15900,"name":"5G投资?#35745;住?#27494;超则 | 大师课","origin_price":16000,"period":-1,"price":16000,"spu_id":13487,"weekly_bought_count":22},"sub_title":"解析通信产业链,挖掘创新硬科技","summary":"

课程更新完?#24076;?折优惠最后一天

\n\n

这是一堂掘金5G通信产业的大师课——5G投资?#35745;住?/strong>

\n\n

纵观每一?#20013;?#24687;通信的升级革命,都引领了科技的?#39034;?#21644;产业的巨变。5G网络作为新一代科技基础设施,各国纷纷投入巨资,一场全球强国的高科技赛跑已经拉开帷幕。

\n\n

5G时代也必将催生一大批“淘金者?#20445;?#36816;营商、设备商、器件商、终端应用纷纷?#24613;?#30331;台,产业链风起云涌的背后也蕴藏着巨大投资机遇。随?#29260;?#35889;的落地,加速5G商用化,重塑传统产业发展模式,将成为我国数字经济发展的新动能。

\n\n

?

\n\n

大师课主讲人?#20309;?#36229;则

\n\n

中信建投研究所所长、TMT行业首席分析师。

\n\n

武超则长期专注于移动互联网、物联网、云计算等通信服务领域的研究,对TMT行业有着独到而敏锐的挖掘力和判断力。2013-2017年连续五年获得新财富通信行业最佳分析师评选第一名。2018年IAMAC最受欢迎卖方分析师通信行业第一名,2018?#31471;?#26230;球》最佳分析师通信行业第一名。

\n\n

2019年,正值5G商用的元年,伴随着5G临时?#26222;?#21457;放,万亿级的投资启动在即,5G行业的投资逻辑也将从主题投资迈向业绩兑现!从政策驱动迈向业务驱动、商业驱动!

\n\n

在5G投资商用的进程中,哪些领域有望最大受益?投资者应关注哪些重要时间节点?产业链哪些细分领域有望突围?应用终端领域谁将率先爆发?通信行业何时迎来业绩拐点?

\n\n

武超则将在5G投资?#35745;?#30340;大师课中为您一一解惑,从产业的视?#21069;?#25569;投资,从时间的节点预判未来,让我们?#40644;?#21551;?#20581;?/p>\n\n

如何学习

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\"image\"/

\n","summary_rich_text":"

课程更新完?#24076;?折优惠最后一天

这是一堂掘金5G通信产业的大师课——5G投资?#35745;住?/strong>

纵观每一?#20013;?#24687;通信的升级革命,都引领了科技的?#39034;?#21644;产业的巨变。5G网络作为新一代科技基础设施,各国纷纷投入巨资,一场全球强国的高科技赛跑已经拉开帷幕。

5G时代也必将催生一大批“淘金者?#20445;?#36816;营商、设备商、器件商、终端应用纷纷?#24613;?#30331;台,产业链风起云涌的背后也蕴藏着巨大投资机遇。随?#29260;?#35889;的落地,加速5G商用化,重塑传统产业发展模式,将成为我国数字经济发展的新动能。

?

大师课主讲人?#20309;?#36229;则

中信建投研究所所长、TMT行业首席分析师。

武超则长期专注于移动互联网、物联网、云计算等通信服务领域的研究,对TMT行业有着独到而敏锐的挖掘力和判断力。2013-2017年连续五年获得新财富通信行业最佳分析师评选第一名。2018年IAMAC最受欢迎卖方分析师通信行业第一名,2018?#31471;?#26230;球》最佳分析师通信行业第一名。

2019年,正值5G商用的元年,伴随着5G临时?#26222;?#21457;放,万亿级的投资启动在即,5G行业的投资逻辑也将从主题投资迈向业绩兑现!从政策驱动迈向业务驱动、商业驱动!

在5G投资商用的进程中,哪些领域有望最大受益?投资者应关注哪些重要时间节点?产业链哪些细分领域有望突围?应用终端领域谁将率先爆发?通信行业何时迎来业绩拐点?

武超则将在5G投资?#35745;?#30340;大师课中为您一一解惑,从产业的视?#21069;?#25569;投资,从时间的节点预判未来,让我们?#40644;?#21551;?#20581;?/p>

如何学习

","title":"5G投资?#35745;住?#27494;超则 | 大师课","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/premium/topics/1002840"},"resource_type":"topic"},{"resource":{"author":{"author_short_intro":"全市场基金经理都在看","display_name":"脱水研报","id":120000000496},"content_count":0,"id":1000318,"image":{"horizontal_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/d8883cf8-3aa4-4e32-8ccc-df55ba26fd4d.jpg","vertical_image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/9670304f-e3bb-4f6e-9ba3-4fcd3e7152ba.jpg"},"is_audio":false,"is_internal":true,"is_text":true,"is_video":false,"latest_article":{"content_short":"1、5G新材料黑马,从唯一垄断领域切入净利率80%新市场,产品矩阵全面?#40644;?需求直接翻倍+拿下?#30340;?#25152;有巨头,业绩连飚5年都不够\n2、估?#24403;?#23452;、业绩稳、年年高分红、现在又开始疯狂扩张上量,4000亿资金集结完毕、?#24613;?#22312;5月批?#21487;比隲n3、逻辑简单暴力的洼地:供给彻底断了,价格亟待暴涨,唯一?#21592;?#20173;在底部\n4、最热的5G板块,机构都扫了哪些货?","id":3517400,"title":"被极?#32676;?#35270;的5G新材料龙头,产品矩阵全面?#40644;品?#37327;+需求直接翻倍+拿下?#30340;?#25152;有巨头;4000亿资金五一节后虎视眈眈,即将扫货这?#35805;?#22359;——0424脱水研报","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/premium/articles/3517400?layout=wscn-layout"},"most_recent_content_time":1556115828,"product":{"bought_count":11562,"discount_copywriting":"原价8448.00(立省2703元)","discount_text":"原价8448.00(立省2703元)","end_time_timestamp":0,"id":683,"is_can_renewal":true,"is_multi_products":true,"is_paid":false,"min_product_price":62000,"name":"A股脱水研报","origin_price":459600,"period":4,"price":459600,"spu_id":580,"weekly_bought_count":44},"sub_title":"每天6分钟,每天6元起,基金经理都在看的全球研报精华","summary":"

你是不是很苦恼,面对邮箱里每天几百篇的卖方报告,根本没时间覆盖乃至用心阅读。待到日后暴涨时,?#27431;?#35273;某日某份报告的第N行N段其实早已提及了核心逻辑。?

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??

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现在起,我们化身为你的眼线,挖掘“研如玉?#20445;?#24110;助你5分钟遍览全球研报精华。

\n\n

?

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可以称呼我们为脱水团队,每日专注汲取券商研究报告的精华,取数据、探逻辑、看动机、做对比,挑选出研报中的分歧与共识、低关注与超预期以及更细节的信息增量给热爱投资的你。

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?

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——大浪淘金:20人豪华A股研究团队,每天阅遍2000篇研报、50万字,只为你挑出5条投资机会或干货。可能只是万千研报中的一张图、一句话,但我们知道你需要它。

\n\n

?

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——简约好读:只干货,没废话。我们知道你受够了研报八股,现在起请忘了它。

\n\n

?

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——战绩斐然:都说研报是马后炮,那是你不会挖。脱水研报栏目试运行三个月,深受市场投资者?#25918;酢?#37325;点?#32439;?#20027;题及个股战绩,请参见试读文章中的脱水案例回顾。

\n\n

?

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让研报脱水,跟八股永别。

\n\n

周日至周四晚21:30,每天五分钟,你可能忽略的研报细节,可能错过的投资机会,都在这里。?

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有任何疑问欢迎联?#20302;?#27700;研报团?#29992;?#20070;微信:geshanwscn

\n","summary_rich_text":"

你是不是很苦恼,面对邮箱里每天几百篇的卖方报告,根本没时间覆盖乃至用心阅读。待到日后暴涨时,?#27431;?#35273;某日某份报告的第N行N段其实早已提及了核心逻辑。?

??

现在起,我们化身为你的眼线,挖掘“研如玉?#20445;?#24110;助你5分钟遍览全球研报精华。

?

可以称呼我们为脱水团队,每日专注汲取券商研究报告的精华,取数据、探逻辑、看动机、做对比,挑选出研报中的分歧与共识、低关注与超预期以及更细节的信息增量给热爱投资的你。

?

——大浪淘金:20人豪华A股研究团队,每天阅遍2000篇研报、50万字,只为你挑出5条投资机会或干货。可能只是万千研报中的一张图、一句话,但我们知道你需要它。

?

——简约好读:只干货,没废话。我们知道你受够了研报八股,现在起请忘了它。

?

——战绩斐然:都说研报是马后炮,那是你不会挖。脱水研报栏目试运行三个月,深受市场投资者?#25918;酢?#37325;点?#32439;?#20027;题及个股战绩,请参见试读文章中的脱水案例回顾。

?

让研报脱水,跟八股永别。

周日至周四晚21:30,每天五分钟,你可能忽略的研报细节,可能错过的投资机会,都在这里。?

有任何疑问欢迎联?#20302;?#27700;研报团?#29992;?#20070;微信:geshanwscn

","title":"A股脱水研报","uri":"http://www.0081302.com/premium/topics/1000318"},"resource_type":"topic"}]},"[\"/content/interactives/global\",{\"limit\":3},{\"noCacheWhenLogin\":true}]":{"ttl":1,"value":{"items":[{"category":{"key":"gongsi","name":""},"comment_count":13,"created_at":1556156579,"description":"

当地时间4月22日,马斯克在一场网络直播发布会上推出了一款用于自动驾?#40644;?#36710;的新型微芯片。

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马斯?#26494;?#31216;,特斯拉的芯片可以说是业界最好的,因为该款芯片专门针对自动驾?#40644;?#36710;而设计,不像英伟达等其他公司设计的芯片都是用于多种用?#23613;?#39532;斯克还预测,到2020年,该公司将推出逾100万辆无人驾驶出租车。不过,马斯克也承认自己可能无法在规定时间内完成任务,但“我一定会完成任务。”

","fixed_participatent_count":0,"id":386,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/11e078e8-f507-40f2-a4ee-60e518e5c4cd.jpg","including_vote":true,"interactive_type":"discuss","is_participated":false,"is_voted":false,"latest_participants":["https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/6eab6f3b-86c8-4735-9ce1-e43c7e089c23","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/db8ed73b-c0c4-4059-8a55-d926d8b67f1f","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/4fda7947-3b93-47af-a662-43450ce358d0"],"participatent_count":767,"play_uris":null,"precedence":0,"publisher":"","related_articles":[],"rumor_status":"false","status":"published","title":"马斯克再放豪言:特斯拉2020年推出100万辆无人驾驶出租车!你觉得会实现吗?","updated_at":1556158312,"uri":"http://www.0081302.com/discuss/386","video_uri":"","vote":{"end_time":1564537349,"options":[{"id":321,"option":"能","votes":70,"ratio":27.66798418972332},{"id":322,"option":"不能","votes":183,"ratio":72.33201581027669}],"start_time":1556191502,"title":"你预计特斯拉能否在2020年推出100万辆无人驾驶出租车?","type":"single"}},{"category":{"key":"gongsi","name":""},"comment_count":10,"created_at":1556155175,"description":"

微软今日公布?#31080;?#26174;?#33606;?#35813;公司第三财季收入、利润均超预期。Azure云业务收入飙升73%。该公司股价盘后上涨超4%,市?#20302;黄?万亿美元。

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?#31080;?#26174;?#33606;?#31532;三财季,微软收入为306亿美元,同比增长14%,高于预期的296.6亿美元。每股盈利1.14美元,而预期为1美元。该公司同期净收入88亿美元,比去年同期增长19%。

\n

在云业务方面,Azure的收入飙升了73%。包括Azure在内的微软商业云业务当季增长41%,至96亿美元。

\n

","fixed_participatent_count":0,"id":385,"image_uri":"https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/08f5a04b-ac0d-47c6-a90b-a542173b452c.jpg","including_vote":false,"interactive_type":"discuss","is_participated":false,"is_voted":false,"latest_participants":["https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ivanka_avatar_8.png","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/ivanka_avatar_4.png","https://wpimg.wallstcn.com/cf1b02c5-8f08-4554-a103-fb6b66921e3f"],"participatent_count":1385,"play_uris":null,"precedence":0,"publisher":"","related_articles":[],"rumor_status":"false","status":"published","title":"【讨论】微软市值破万亿美元!曾经的世界第一不声不响地杀回来了,你如何评价现在的微软?","updated_at":1556155226,"uri":"http://www.0081302.com/discuss/385","video_uri":""},{"category":{"key":"gongsi","name":""},"comment_count":54,"created_at":1556110142,"description":"

4月24日,通过企查查发现,近日浙江天猫网络有限公司发生多项工商变更,阿里巴巴集团首席执行官、阿里巴巴集团董事局董事张勇?#24230;?#35813;公司法定代表人以?#23736;?#20107;长兼总经理职务,改由蒋?#27493;?#20219;。

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毕业十余年,从互联网码农到上市公司总裁,蒋凡见证并引导了中国新零售模式的发展。

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此前美团CEO王兴在微信朋友圈转发《财经》?#21448;尽?#20154;物观察:黄峥的100种偏执》一?#27169;?#24182;表示“接下来几年,看拼多多的黄铮和?#21592;?天猫的蒋凡这两个非常聪明的人如何较量,应该会很精?#30465;薄?/p>\n

黄峥和蒋凡都曾在谷歌工作过,离开后走上两条截然不同的道路,?#32439;?#22810;年又回到同一个战场,成为彼此最大的对手。黄峥率领的拼多多,蒋凡执掌的天猫、?#21592;Γ?#20320;更看好谁?

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《十年利率心法?#39134;?#24230;复盘

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利率:金融市场传导的底层逻辑密码

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金融市场的瞬息万变、资产价格大幅波动,利率就是其底层传导的逻辑链条,是大类资产轮动的核心驱动能力。

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为什么金融市场格外关注央行的货币政策动向?“加息缩表”的分析评论成为2018年不绝于耳的金融讨论话题。为什么美联储的议息会议会牵动全球市场投资者的神经?

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为什么近期美债收益率的迅速上行,带来了全球金融市场的股债双?#20445;?#20840;球资产价格波动率的迅速上行?一时之间,金融市场风险迅速传导,资产价格起伏震荡。

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这背后的底层密码就是利率的变化与传导,国债收益率的变化与传导。

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利率的变化对于现代金融市场是真正牵一发而动全身的金融变量。

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利率周期的轮动对于大类资产配置是真正把握其背后规律的底层密码。

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《十年利率心法》的逻辑框架

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资产周期轮动的底层逻辑——?#29992;?#26519;时钟到货币信用

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《十年利率心法》可以分为三大部分,六大章节,章节逻辑上有着完整而严谨的体系设计,层层递进,环环相扣,相信完整学习的你能够体会其中深意。

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利率体系是基础,资产配置是实践,利率周期的起伏是驱动大类资产轮动的核心驱动力,?#21069;?#25569;不同周期下投资机遇的密码。

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《十年利率体系》的上半部分着眼于中国利率体系的基础知识,通过详?#20184;?#23436;整的介绍,旨在帮助投资者建立一套利率的综合分析框架

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《十年利率体系》的下半部分则着眼于资产轮动和资产配置,如果说利率体系理论基础,那么资产配置就是投资实践

\n

如何把握不同周期下的最优投资配?#27809;?#20250;,提高资产配置的收益和效率,相信是每一位市场投资人最为关心的核心议题!

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受全球最大猪肉消费国非洲猪瘟疫情和预期的影响,美国猪肉期货价格(以下简称美猪)从年初到现在已经涨了50%,但等A股猪概念股反应过来开?#25216;?#20307;暴涨时,美国猪肉期货却反向跌停了。

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从目前最新数据来看,中国猪的存栏量?#20808;?#24180;同期下降了19%,市场更是普遍预期下降幅度将继续扩大至30%。新华社更是最新发文称:专?#39029;?#27493;预计,下半年猪肉价格同?#26085;?#24133;可能超过70%!

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市场上涨有理有据,让上周五美国猪肉期货突然跌停看起来只是暂时技术性调整。

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但最新的进展表明,美猪发出混乱信号背后另有原因。

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楼市长熊警报拉响","slot_title":"","content_short":"中国买家去年四季度就开始撤退了。","content_preview":"

2019年美国楼市怎么走?美股市场上两大房地产行业指数先跌为?#30784;?/p>\n

4月15日至19日单周内,纽交所的先锋房地产指数基金(The Vanguard Real Estate ETF,代码VNQ)收跌2.9%,结束了2019年以来每周都上涨的快牛行情;与?#36865;?#26102;,环球不动产信托ETF?(iShares Global REIT ETF,代码REET)也从上周开?#25216;?#36895;下挫,创下2019年以来单周最大跌幅。

\n

2019年一季?#26085;?#20004;大房地产ETF指数迅速上攻,又在4月15日这周同时回落。热衷于炒房的中国买家,也对美国楼市持避险态度。Real Capital Analytics的数据显?#33606;?#21435;年第四季度,来自中国大陆的投资者净卖出了8.54亿美元的美国商业地产,为有史以来首次连续三个季度净卖出。

\n

中国买家先走一步,?#26102;?#24066;场的行情急转直下,这背后美国楼市基本面发生了怎样的变化?

\n

*本文内容由见闻研究团队原创,投资者可以添加微信号“jwzhujiao1”领取7天会员体验资格,并加入会员投研交流群,和研究团?#21491;黄?#21457;掘全球市场机会*

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